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Across non-circuit-broken sandbagging runs, the locked-run write-peak layer predicts the optimal single-layer graft's recovery-peak layer.

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Across the 33 non-cb runs, the write peak, measured on the locked run with no grafting, predicts the recovery peak ˆℓ = arg maxℓ R(ℓ) with Pearson r = 0.84 (Figure 3a).

A Causal Model for Locating and Unlocking Sandbagging in Model Organismspreprintextraction 0.70

Tan, Hong Kiat, Le, Linh, Williams-King, David · arXiv.org · Aug 29, 2026 · original

Window rule: a single graft succeeds between the last sandbagging write and the first answer commit.

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