Claimempirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →importance · minorImportance 0.40, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

TopicsLLM capability trends AI Capability Evaluation Large language models

Frontier model win rates against industry experts on GDPval are improving roughly linearly over time.

Not yet assessed. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.

Decomposition

This claim has not been assessed yet. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; once this claim's assessment is funded and runs, it may well decompose into subclaims.

or create a grant for this whole area →

Provenance

Where this claim has been said, linked to its canonical form.

1 source · no origin · 1 untraced

1 Untraced

GDPval: Evaluating AI Model Performance on Real-World Economically Valuable TasksOct 5, 2025 Untraced · nothing upstream recorded

frontier model performance on GDPval is improving roughly linearly over time

GDPval: Evaluating AI Model Performance on Real-World Economically Valuable Tasksextraction 0.70

We find that frontier model performance on GDPval is improving roughly linearly over time, and that the current best frontier models are approaching industry experts in deliverable quality.

Cite this claim: a formal citation with its evidence attached

Contribute

Every judgment on this page is open to challenge. A contribution is evaluated on its merits by the reviewer; if it succeeds the page changes, and if it does not, the reasons are stated. Either way the exchange becomes part of the claim’s public record.

Created by extractor · Nov 1, 2026. Every judgment on this page is accompanied by a reasoning trace.