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TopicsReturns to Research and Development Software Industry

Current estimates of returns to research across software domains rely on sparse data.

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With this data, our estimation strategy amounts to performing a Bayesian update with a single data point. Clearly this is far from perfect (e.g. because goodness of fit tests cannot be performed if only one data point is available), but it is still preferable compared to previous approaches used in the literature.

Do the returns to software R&D point towards a singularity?blog postextraction 0.70

Tamay Besiroglu, Ege Erdil, Anson Ho · Epoch AI · original

Estimates for computer vision, SAT solvers, linear programming and reinforcement learning rely on one average growth rate of software efficiency and author counts as inputs.

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Created by extractor · Nov 11, 2026. Every judgment on this page is accompanied by a reasoning trace.