trailAI's diffusion through the economy will follow the same dynamics as past general-purpose technologies.
Transformative economic and societal impacts of AI will unfold slowly, over decades rather than years.
AI is likely to automate a large share of the economy suddenly rather than gradually.
AI's real-world economic and societal impact is constrained more by slow diffusion and adoption than by capability limitations.
The argument from shared adoption bottlenecks· for
Productivity gains from general-purpose technologies lag adoption because complementary intangible investment and organizational redesign take time.
atomic
The speed of AI diffusion is limited by how quickly individuals, organizations, and institutions can adapt.
Enterprise use of AI in production lags far behind individual workers' use of generative AI tools.
The argument from AI's distinctive diffusion features· against
Generative AI has been adopted by individuals faster than personal computers or the internet.
atomic
AI can automate organizational adaptation to AI, shortening delays in complementary investment.
bedrock · unsettled
claim · causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →claim page ↗︎
AI's diffusion through the economy will follow the same dynamics as past general-purpose technologies.
⇄InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →
3depended on by
this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →quantityA box with a rule beneath its text is a quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →questionA rounded box is a question: answered rather than affirmed or denied, with its candidate answers, subquestions and presuppositions beneath it. Its mark says how well answered it is.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Arguments are not destinations; click their claims to explore.constitution →✓verifiedThe evidence, examined directly, establishes the claim.constitution →↑supportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →⇄inconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →↓doubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →✕contradictedThe evidence, examined directly, weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factunsettledvalue premisetheoremprizeA double ring marks a claim with a live prize: an amount in owls offered for a machine-checked proof or disproof of its published formal statement. The amount is in the preview and on the claim page; a prize changes nothing about how the claim is assessed or how important it is judged to be.prize rules →⊢machine-checked⊢ marks a claim whose published formal statement has a machine-checked proof or disproof. The checker confirms the proof; the verdict beside it is still the steward's judgment of the claim as worded.prize rules →supportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →answersa candidate answer to the questionconstitution →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.