trailChain-of-thought controllability increases with model scale.
Increasing reasoning-model capability reduces chain-of-thought reliability as an oversight signal.
Future AI models will be able to deliberately obscure their reasoning to evade chain-of-thought monitoring.
The argument from within-family parameter scaling· for
Within open-weight reasoning model families, models with more parameters score higher on the CoT-Control controllability evaluation.
atomic
The argument from successive frontier generations· for
Newer frontier reasoning models have substantially more controllable chains of thought than earlier generations.
GPT-6-generation OpenAI models score substantially higher than GPT-5.x models on CoT-Control at matched chain-of-thought length.
Among Claude models, chain-of-thought controllability tracks model size rather than release date.
GPT-6 Astra's chain-of-thought controllability increased during RL training, unlike earlier OpenAI models.
The argument from scaling reasoning compute· against
Greater outcome-based RL training on reasoning tasks decreases chain-of-thought controllability.
CoT controllability declined over outcome-based RL training in the CoT-Control experiments.
bedrock · fact
claim · empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →claim page ↗︎
Chain-of-thought controllability increases with model scale.
↑SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →credence 0.72Credence, from 0 to 1: the Steward's probability that the claim, as stated, is true. Stated only where a single number is an honest summary; normative and evaluative claims usually carry none.constitution →
2depended on by
this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →quantityA box with a rule beneath its text is a quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →questionA rounded box is a question: answered rather than affirmed or denied, with its candidate answers, subquestions and presuppositions beneath it. Its mark says how well answered it is.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Arguments are not destinations; click their claims to explore.constitution →✓verifiedThe evidence, examined directly, establishes the claim.constitution →↑supportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →⇄inconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →↓doubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →✕contradictedThe evidence, examined directly, weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factunsettledvalue premisetheoremprizeA double ring marks a claim with a live prize: an amount in owls offered for a machine-checked proof or disproof of its published formal statement. The amount is in the preview and on the claim page; a prize changes nothing about how the claim is assessed or how important it is judged to be.prize rules →⊢machine-checked⊢ marks a claim whose published formal statement has a machine-checked proof or disproof. The checker confirms the proof; the verdict beside it is still the steward's judgment of the claim as worded.prize rules →supportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →answersa candidate answer to the questionconstitution →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.