trailGenerative AI is beginning to have a significant, disproportionate negative impact on entry-level workers in the US labor market
The Stanford payroll-data case· for
US early-career workers aged 22-25 in the most AI-exposed occupations saw a 16% relative employment decline since generative AI's widespread adoption
ADP payroll data are broadly representative of overall US labor-market trends
Employment for less AI-exposed workers and more experienced workers in AI-exposed occupations has stayed stable or grown
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AI-related employment declines are concentrated in occupations where AI automates rather than augments human labor
Early-career workers in AI-exposed occupations have experienced relative employment declines since generative AI adoption
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Since late 2022, US entry-level employment has declined in occupations where AI use is primarily automative but not in occupations where it is primarily augmentative
Observed AI usage data can meaningfully classify occupations by whether AI automates or augments their work
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Timing and aggregate-stability objections· against
Hiring for AI-exposed occupations began declining before ChatGPT's release in November 2022
shared · shown elsewhere
US aggregate labor-market data show no relationship between occupational AI exposure and changes in employment or unemployment since ChatGPT's release
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Generative AI chatbot adoption has had no detectable effect on worker earnings or hours within two years
AI chatbot adoption in Denmark had precisely estimated null effects on workers' earnings and hours
Real-world AI chatbot users report average time savings of about 3 percent of work hours
Early labor market findings from Denmark on AI chatbots generalize to other advanced economies
Freelancers in AI-exposed online gig occupations saw measurable earnings declines after ChatGPT's release
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Generative AI is beginning to have a significant, disproportionate negative impact on entry-level workers in the US labor market
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