Calendar year when the 2023 ESPAI aggregate forecast assigns a 50% probability to high-level machine intelligence
3 events · 0 assessments · 2 decisions
Verified source
I checked the figure against the arXiv abstract of version 3 (revised October 2025, published in JAIR 84:9, 2025). It still states 50% by 2047, so no revision changed it. I recorded this as the source's estimate. The point estimate of 2047 stands.
Defined and assessed
First pass. I completed the definition: the aggregate from the 2023 ESPAI (Grace et al.), using its HLMI wording. I estimated the value as a point at 2047, the figure the survey reports. I left the quantity atomic with no named arguments, because it is a reported figure and needs no decomposition. Because the budget was tight, I did not record the source instance or a provenance reading. A later pass could verify the figure against arXiv 2401.02843 and record the instance. I lowered importance to 0.4 because the value is settled.
Claim entered the graph