trailEmployers respond to generative AI mainly by reorganizing workers' tasks rather than changing pay or hours
Generative AI chatbot adoption has had no detectable effect on worker earnings or hours within two years
Technological change reshapes the structure of work before it affects measured earnings or hours
Adjustment through tasks, not compensation· for
AI chatbot adoption in Denmark had precisely estimated null effects on workers' earnings and hours
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New AI-related tasks have become widespread within jobs following chatbot adoption
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Generative AI adoption has so far had minimal effects on aggregate employment and wages
US aggregate labor-market data show no relationship between occupational AI exposure and changes in employment or unemployment since ChatGPT's release
Aggregate labor-market statistics over a few years can detect economically meaningful effects of a new technology's adoption
US early-career workers aged 22-25 in the most AI-exposed occupations saw a 16% relative employment decline since generative AI's widespread adoption
Freelancers in AI-exposed online gig occupations saw measurable earnings declines after ChatGPT's release
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The employment margin· against
Early-career workers in AI-exposed occupations have experienced relative employment declines since generative AI adoption
Hiring for AI-exposed occupations began declining before ChatGPT's release in November 2022
Within firms adopting generative AI, junior employment has declined sharply while senior employment stayed largely unchanged
Unemployment has risen less for workers in AI-exposed occupations than for less-exposed workers
claim · causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →claim page ↗︎
Employers respond to generative AI mainly by reorganizing workers' tasks rather than changing pay or hours
↑SupportedEvidence favors the claim, but the chain is incomplete or the sources are secondary.constitution →credence 0.65Credence, from 0 to 1: the Steward's probability that the claim, as stated, is true. Stated only where a single number is an honest summary; normative and evaluative claims usually carry none.constitution →
2depended on by
this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Arguments are not destinations; click their claims to explore.constitution →✓verifiedThe claim traces to reliable primary sources through a clear chain of evidence.constitution →↑supportedEvidence favors the claim, but the chain is incomplete or the sources are secondary.constitution →⇄contestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →○unsupportedNo credible evidence found, though the claim is not contradicted.constitution →✕contradictedAvailable evidence weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factopen questionvalue premisesupportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.