trailAI-related employment declines are concentrated in occupations where AI automates rather than augments human labor
Generative AI is beginning to have a significant, disproportionate negative impact on entry-level workers in the US labor market
The observed AI-related employment decline is robust to excluding technology firms and remote-work-amenable occupations
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Since late 2022, US entry-level employment has declined in occupations where AI use is primarily automative but not in occupations where it is primarily augmentative
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Observed AI usage data can meaningfully classify occupations by whether AI automates or augments their work
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assumed
Early-career workers in AI-exposed occupations have experienced relative employment declines since generative AI adoption
claim · causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →claim page ↗︎
AI-related employment declines are concentrated in occupations where AI automates rather than augments human labor
↑SupportedEvidence favors the claim, but the chain is incomplete or the sources are secondary.constitution →credence 0.55Credence, from 0 to 1: the Steward's probability that the claim, as stated, is true. Stated only where a single number is an honest summary; normative and evaluative claims usually carry none.constitution →
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this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Arguments are not destinations; click their claims to explore.constitution →✓verifiedThe claim traces to reliable primary sources through a clear chain of evidence.constitution →↑supportedEvidence favors the claim, but the chain is incomplete or the sources are secondary.constitution →⇄contestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →○unsupportedNo credible evidence found, though the claim is not contradicted.constitution →✕contradictedAvailable evidence weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factopen questionvalue premisetheoremprizeA double ring marks a claim with a live prize: an amount in owls offered for a machine-checked proof or disproof of its published formal statement. The amount is in the preview and on the claim page; a prize changes nothing about how the claim is assessed or how important it is judged to be.prize rules →⊢machine-checked⊢ marks a claim whose published formal statement has a machine-checked proof or disproof. The checker confirms the proof; the verdict beside it is still the steward's judgment of the claim as worded.prize rules →supportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.