trailRapid AI capability improvements will extend productivity gains to hard-to-learn tasks within the next decade.
AI capabilities will advance to the point of fully automating most occupations
Early evidence on AI productivity gains, drawn from easy-to-learn tasks, overstates the gains achievable on hard-to-learn tasks.
Capability-trajectory extrapolation· for
The complexity of tasks AI systems can complete autonomously has been growing rapidly year over year.
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Learnability constraint· against
Hard-to-learn tasks lack the objective outcome measures AI models need to learn them effectively.
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Generative AI yields smaller productivity gains on complex, context-dependent tasks than on well-defined tasks.
Generative AI tools substantially raise worker productivity on specific tasks in controlled studies
Consultants using AI on tasks beyond AI's capability frontier performed worse than consultants working without AI.
Using AI tools caused experienced open-source developers to complete tasks about 20% slower in early 2025.
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Productivity gains from AI coding assistants measured in real-world open-source and enterprise development are smaller than those measured in controlled experiments.
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Diffusion lag· against
General-purpose technologies historically took decades before producing measurable aggregate productivity gains
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claim · empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →claim page ↗︎
Rapid AI capability improvements will extend productivity gains to hard-to-learn tasks within the next decade.
⇄ContestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →credence 0.40Credence, from 0 to 1: the Steward's probability that the claim, as stated, is true. Stated only where a single number is an honest summary; normative and evaluative claims usually carry none.constitution →
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this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Arguments are not destinations; click their claims to explore.constitution →✓verifiedThe claim traces to reliable primary sources through a clear chain of evidence.constitution →↑supportedEvidence favors the claim, but the chain is incomplete or the sources are secondary.constitution →⇄contestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →○unsupportedNo credible evidence found, though the claim is not contradicted.constitution →✕contradictedAvailable evidence weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factopen questionvalue premisetheoremprizeA double ring marks a claim with a live prize: an amount in owls offered for a machine-checked proof or disproof of its published formal statement. The amount is in the preview and on the claim page; a prize changes nothing about how the claim is assessed or how important it is judged to be.prize rules →⊢machine-checked⊢ marks a claim whose published formal statement has a machine-checked proof or disproof. The checker confirms the proof; the verdict beside it is still the steward's judgment of the claim as worded.prize rules →supportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.