trailSARS-CoV-2 originated through zoonotic spillover at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan
Market-origin (zoonosis) case· for
Lineage distribution patterns indicate two independent spillover events at the Huanan Market
Two basal SARS-CoV-2 lineages are statistically improbable under a single spillover event
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Lineage A was present at the Huanan Seafood Market
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In a 2024 survey of 168 experts (mostly epidemiologists and virologists), respondents on average assigned substantially higher probability to a zoonotic origin of SARS-CoV-2 (~77%) than to a lab-leak origin (~21%).
bedrock · fact
Introduced-elsewhere (market-as-amplifier) case· against
COVID-19 cases occurred before the Huanan Market cluster began
A peer-reviewed report documented a COVID-19 case with symptom onset on December 1, 2019 and no epidemiological link to the Huanan Seafood Market
The first reported COVID-19 patient's actual symptom onset was December 16, 2019, not December 1, 2019
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A Huanan Market-linked vendor with symptom onset around December 11, 2019 was the earliest documented COVID-19 case
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SARS-CoV-2 has a laboratory origin
The furin cleavage site in SARS-CoV-2 is evidence of laboratory engineering
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The WIV possessed or could have engineered a close progenitor of SARS-CoV-2
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Early COVID-19 cases cluster spatially around the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market
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claim · causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →claim page ↗︎
SARS-CoV-2 originated through zoonotic spillover at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan
⇄ContestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →
Nothing in the graph builds on this claim yet.
this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Arguments are not destinations; click their claims to explore.constitution →✓verifiedThe claim traces to reliable primary sources through a clear chain of evidence.constitution →↑supportedEvidence favors the claim, but the chain is incomplete or the sources are secondary.constitution →⇄contestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →○unsupportedNo credible evidence found, though the claim is not contradicted.constitution →✕contradictedAvailable evidence weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment — the Steward prioritises higher-importance claims, so this one is likely still queued.constitution →verified factopen questionvalue premisesupportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →Fig. — detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.