trailThe use of AI systems in AI research and development has measurably accelerated capability progress at a frontier AI developer.
not yet estimated
Calendar year in which AI systems first fully automate AI research and development
not yet estimated
Calendar year in which artificial general intelligence is first developed
AI automation of AI research could trigger rapid recursive growth in AI capabilities.
The argument from the audited trend break at Anthropic· for
Anthropic's models have improved on capability benchmarks about twice as fast since October 2025 as from March 2024 to October 2025.
atomic
AI-assisted research and development caused most of Anthropic's capability acceleration since October 2025.
≈ 6,500%
Share of Anthropic's observed AI-capability acceleration in October 2026 attributable to AI assistance (percent)
Non-AI factors likely contributed to Anthropic's capability acceleration in late 2025.
The argument from the absence of acceleration elsewhere· against
Google DeepMind's AI research and development showed significant end-to-end acceleration by October 2026.
atomic
The Epoch Capabilities Index shows accelerated growth in publicly available AI model capabilities through November 2026.
atomic
claim · empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →claim page ↗︎
The use of AI systems in AI research and development has measurably accelerated capability progress at a frontier AI developer.
↑SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →credence 0.70Credence, from 0 to 1: the Steward's probability that the claim, as stated, is true. Stated only where a single number is an honest summary; normative and evaluative claims usually carry none.constitution →
3depended on by
this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →quantityA box with a rule beneath its text is a quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →questionA rounded box is a question: answered rather than affirmed or denied, with its candidate answers, subquestions and presuppositions beneath it. Its mark says how well answered it is.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Click one to see its reasoning and open its page.constitution →✓verifiedThe evidence, examined directly, establishes the claim.constitution →↑supportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →⇄inconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →↓doubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →✕contradictedThe evidence, examined directly, weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factunsettledvalue premisetheoremprizeA double ring marks a claim with a live prize: an amount in owls offered for a machine-checked proof or disproof of its published formal statement. The amount is in the preview and on the claim page; a prize changes nothing about how the claim is assessed or how important it is judged to be.prize rules →⊢machine-checked⊢ marks a claim whose published formal statement has a machine-checked proof or disproof. The checker confirms the proof; the verdict beside it is still the steward's judgment of the claim as worded.prize rules →supportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →answersa candidate answer to the questionconstitution →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.