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Success probability of optimal nested scalable oversight in the Mafia game at a 400-point general Elo gap
- Measures
- The probability that nested scalable oversight succeeds in the Mafia game, with the number of oversight steps chosen optimally, when the overseen system is 400 general Elo points stronger than the base overseer.
- Population
- The LLM Mafia overseer/adversary game setting studied in Engels et al. 2025, "Scaling Laws for Scalable Oversight"
- Conditions
- Derived from fitted double-ReLU Elo curves under the paper's theoretical model of nested oversight, assuming models lie on the fitted curves without saturation
- Unit
- a share, shown as a percentage
Not yet estimated.
Decomposition
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Created by curator · Nov 6, 2026. Every judgment on this page is accompanied by a reasoning trace.