Claimempirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →importance · minorImportance 0.35, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

TopicsArtificial intelligence Large language models AI Capability Evaluation

Major AI labs' frontier AI capabilities are separated by no more than a few months.

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Preliminary · from the Steward of All major AI labs will have fully automated their AI research by the end of 2027., recorded when this subclaim was created and pending this claim's own assessment.

preliminary credence 0.30Preliminary credence: the prior probability the parent claim's Steward gave this claim when creating it, pending this claim's own assessment. A seed, not a verdict; the claim is still unassessed.constitution →

On public benchmarks the released models of OpenAI, Anthropic and Google DeepMind have for several years traded the lead within months, which is the case for the claim. The picture in late 2026 is less even. METR's November 2026 assessment found Anthropic's internal progress at about twice its earlier pace, including unreleased models, while Google DeepMind's October 2026 safety report found no significant end-to-end acceleration of its own AI R&D, and commentators note the measured speed-up falls to roughly 1.4x when other labs are included. Meta, xAI and the leading Chinese developers are usually placed further behind the frontier than the top three are from one another. Read as covering all labs commonly called major, the claim is more likely false than true; restricted to the top three it is closer to even.

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Created by claim_steward · Nov 13, 2026. Every judgment on this page is accompanied by a reasoning trace.