Eliciting AI timeline forecasts with fixed years rather than fixed probabilities yields systematically later forecasts.
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For example, the year with a 50% chance of HLMI from participants answering in the fixed-year frame (34 years) was twice as far into the future as that for participants answering in the fixed-probability frame (17 years).
The fixed-years framing has been previously observed to produce systematically later predictions.
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Created by extractor · Nov 1, 2026. Every judgment on this page is accompanied by a reasoning trace.