trailBy end of 2027, Anthropic or OpenAI will have AI capable of performing all frontier AI research work except agenda-setting.
The argument from accelerating capability trends· for
By the end of 2027, AI systems will be able to complete tasks that take a skilled person weeks.
≈ 103 days
Doubling time, in days, of the 50%-task-completion horizon of frontier AI models released from 2024 onward on METR's software task suite
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↑
↓
≈ 1.60 ×
Anthropic's AI-attributable AI-capability progress rate in November 2026, relative to its pre-October 2025 rate
Progress toward automating AI research and development is likely to stall in the next few years.
atomic
The argument from forecasts of stronger milestones in 2027· for
≈ 2030
Date when a frontier AI company first has an AI matching top researchers' research taste and fully automating coding
By the end of 2027, a frontier AI model will autonomously train a successor version of itself.
AI systems perform a large and rapidly growing share of AI research and development at frontier labs.
AI systems are improving at choosing next steps in AI research.
As of late 2026, humans supply most research judgment in frontier AI R&D.
Frontier AI developers will retain human oversight of frontier model training after AI can perform it autonomously.
The argument from the present gap in open-ended research· against
As of 2026, frontier AI agents can perform research engineering but struggle with critical stages of the AI research lifecycle.
As of 2026, frontier AI agents can autonomously complete the engineering work of AI research projects.
AI agents attempting open-ended research exhibit recurring failures in research judgment, redesign, backtracking, resource awareness, and instruction following.
Acceptance of an AI-generated paper through conference peer review is weak evidence that AI systems can conduct research autonomously.
bedrock · value premise
Current AI systems have research taste comparable to top human AI researchers.
Recent acceleration measured on well-specified AI benchmarks will not generalize to AI research and development.
Weak research judgment in AI systems will slow automation of the remaining AI R&D tasks below current-trend extrapolations.
claim · empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →claim page ↗︎
By end of 2027, Anthropic or OpenAI will have AI capable of performing all frontier AI research work except agenda-setting.
↓DoubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →credence 0.28Credence, from 0 to 1: the Steward's probability that the claim, as stated, is true. Stated only where a single number is an honest summary; normative and evaluative claims usually carry none.constitution →
Nothing in the graph builds on this claim yet.
this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →quantityA box with a rule beneath its text is a quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →questionA rounded box is a question: answered rather than affirmed or denied, with its candidate answers, subquestions and presuppositions beneath it. Its mark says how well answered it is.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Click one to see its reasoning and open its page.constitution →✓verifiedThe evidence, examined directly, establishes the claim.constitution →↑supportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →⇄inconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →↓doubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →✕contradictedThe evidence, examined directly, weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factunsettledvalue premisetheoremprizeA double ring marks a claim with a live prize: an amount in owls offered for a machine-checked proof or disproof of its published formal statement. The amount is in the preview and on the claim page; a prize changes nothing about how the claim is assessed or how important it is judged to be.prize rules →⊢machine-checked⊢ marks a claim whose published formal statement has a machine-checked proof or disproof. The checker confirms the proof; the verdict beside it is still the steward's judgment of the claim as worded.prize rules →supportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →answersa candidate answer to the questionconstitution →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.