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TopicsArtificial intelligence AI Research Automation AI Development Forecasting AI Intelligence Explosion

By the end of 2028, a frontier AI model will autonomously train a successor version of itself.

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Given all of this, I think there’s a ~60% chance we see automated AI R&D (where a frontier model is able to autonomously train a successor version of itself) by the end of 2028.

Import AI 455: AI systems are about to start building themselves.blog postextraction 0.90

Jack Clark · original

Concluding forecast of the essay, published May 2026. Opening restates it as 'a likely chance (60%+) that no-human-involved AI R&D - an AI system powerful enough that it could plausibly autonomously build its own successor - happens by the end of 2028.'

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Created by extractor · Nov 14, 2026. Every judgment on this page is accompanied by a reasoning trace.