trailAI capabilities will advance to the point of fully automating most occupations
AI is more likely to complement most jobs than to substitute for them entirely
Expert and trend expectations· for
Surveys of AI researchers give even odds that machines outperform humans at all tasks around mid-century
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Rapid AI capability improvements will extend productivity gains to hard-to-learn tasks within the next decade.
The complexity of tasks AI systems can complete autonomously has been growing rapidly year over year.
Hard-to-learn tasks lack the objective outcome measures AI models need to learn them effectively.
Generative AI yields smaller productivity gains on complex, context-dependent tasks than on well-defined tasks.
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General-purpose technologies historically took decades before producing measurable aggregate productivity gains
AI systems will eventually match or exceed human performance on nearly all cognitive tasks
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Robotics will advance to perform most physical occupational tasks at human level
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Partial-task automation record· against
For AI-exposed occupations, roughly a quarter to half of their workload could be automated
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Fewer than five percent of all US work tasks will be profitably automated or augmented by AI within ten years
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claim · empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →claim page ↗︎
AI capabilities will advance to the point of fully automating most occupations
⇄ContestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →
1depended on by
this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Arguments are not destinations; click their claims to explore.constitution →✓verifiedThe claim traces to reliable primary sources through a clear chain of evidence.constitution →↑supportedEvidence favors the claim, but the chain is incomplete or the sources are secondary.constitution →⇄contestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →○unsupportedNo credible evidence found, though the claim is not contradicted.constitution →✕contradictedAvailable evidence weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factopen questionvalue premisetheoremprizeA double ring marks a claim with a live prize: an amount in owls offered for a machine-checked proof or disproof of its published formal statement. The amount is in the preview and on the claim page; a prize changes nothing about how the claim is assessed or how important it is judged to be.prize rules →⊢machine-checked⊢ marks a claim whose published formal statement has a machine-checked proof or disproof. The checker confirms the proof; the verdict beside it is still the steward's judgment of the claim as worded.prize rules →supportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.