Claimempirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →importance · notableImportance 0.50, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

TopicsAI researcher survey forecasts Automation and employment Human-level artificial intelligence

AI researchers' forecasts put a 50% probability of full automation of labor over 60 years after HLMI.

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1 source · no origin · 1 untraced

1 Untraced

https://arxiv.org/html/2401.02843v3 Untraced · nothing upstream recorded

Predictions for a 50% chance of the arrival of FAOL are consistently more than sixty years later than those for a 50% chance of the arrival of HLMI.

https://arxiv.org/html/2401.02843v3extraction 0.75

Seen in the 2016, 2022 and 2023 surveys; authors suggest it may be a framing effect since the two concepts are similar.

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Created by extractor · Nov 1, 2026. Every judgment on this page is accompanied by a reasoning trace.