trailThe impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will exceed that of the Industrial Revolution.
The argument from imminent superhuman AI and an R&D feedback loop· for
Extrapolating exponential AI capability trends is a sound basis for short AI timelines.
The task-completion time horizon of frontier AI models began growing faster around 2024.
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AI time horizons grow roughly exponentially across many task domains beyond software engineering, with similar doubling times.
Growth in AI task-completion time horizons on benchmarks tracks progress toward AI that can automate AI research or most cognitive work.
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AI systems will attain superhuman coding ability by 2027.
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The argument from slow diffusion and historical overforecasting· against
Transformative economic and societal impacts of AI will unfold slowly, over decades rather than years.
Past general-purpose technologies took decades, rather than years, to diffuse.
The speed of AI diffusion is limited by how quickly individuals, organizations, and institutions can adapt.
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AI adoption in high-consequence tasks will continue to diffuse slowly.
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AI's diffusion through the economy will follow the same dynamics as past general-purpose technologies.
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Expert and industry forecasts of AI's near-term real-world impact have systematically exceeded realized outcomes.
Generative AI workplace adoption has been faster than forecasters and historical technology precedents predicted.
AI experts underestimated the pace of AI capability progress over the past decade.
AI has produced a measurable increase in aggregate productivity growth by 2026.
Growth in frontier AI training compute will slow substantially before 2030 because of cost, power, and chip constraints.
bedrock · unsettled
claim · empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →claim page ↗︎
The impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will exceed that of the Industrial Revolution.
↓DoubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →credence 0.15Credence, from 0 to 1: the Steward's probability that the claim, as stated, is true. Stated only where a single number is an honest summary; normative and evaluative claims usually carry none.constitution →
Nothing in the graph builds on this claim yet.
this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →quantityA box with a rule beneath its text is a quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →questionA rounded box is a question: answered rather than affirmed or denied, with its candidate answers, subquestions and presuppositions beneath it. Its mark says how well answered it is.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Click one to see its reasoning and open its page.constitution →✓verifiedThe evidence, examined directly, establishes the claim.constitution →↑supportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →⇄inconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →↓doubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →✕contradictedThe evidence, examined directly, weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factunsettledvalue premisetheoremprizeA double ring marks a claim with a live prize: an amount in owls offered for a machine-checked proof or disproof of its published formal statement. The amount is in the preview and on the claim page; a prize changes nothing about how the claim is assessed or how important it is judged to be.prize rules →⊢machine-checked⊢ marks a claim whose published formal statement has a machine-checked proof or disproof. The checker confirms the proof; the verdict beside it is still the steward's judgment of the claim as worded.prize rules →supportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →answersa candidate answer to the questionconstitution →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.