trailCOVID-19 cases occurred before the Huanan Market cluster began
SARS-CoV-2 has a laboratory origin
SARS-CoV-2 originated through zoonotic spillover at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan
Early case reports predate the market· for
A peer-reviewed report documented a COVID-19 case with symptom onset on December 1, 2019 and no epidemiological link to the Huanan Seafood Market
atomic
The early record may have missed earlier cases away from the market· for
Early COVID-19 case ascertainment was biased toward cases linked to the Huanan market
shared · shown elsewhere
Early-case dates do not survive scrutiny· against
The early Wuhan patient reported with December 1, 2019 symptom onset actually developed COVID-19 around December 26, 2019
atomic
A 41-year-old Wuhan accountant's COVID-19 symptom onset was December 16, 2019; his December 8 illness was an unrelated dental problem
atomic
A Huanan Market-linked vendor with symptom onset around December 11, 2019 was the earliest documented COVID-19 case
The earliest cases centre on the market· against
Early COVID-19 cases cluster spatially around the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market
COVID-19 cases with no direct link to the Huanan market also clustered spatially around the market
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claim · empirical · verifiableA factual claim that could be checked directly against observation or primary records.constitution →claim page ↗︎
COVID-19 cases occurred before the Huanan Market cluster began
↓DoubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →credence 0.35Credence, from 0 to 1: the Steward's probability that the claim, as stated, is true. Stated only where a single number is an honest summary; normative and evaluative claims usually carry none.constitution →
2depended on by
this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →quantityA box with a rule beneath its text is a quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →questionA rounded box is a question: answered rather than affirmed or denied, with its candidate answers, subquestions and presuppositions beneath it. Its mark says how well answered it is.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Click one to see its reasoning and open its page.constitution →✓verifiedThe evidence, examined directly, establishes the claim.constitution →↑supportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →⇄inconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →↓doubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →✕contradictedThe evidence, examined directly, weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factunsettledvalue premisetheoremprizeA double ring marks a claim with a live prize: an amount in owls offered for a machine-checked proof or disproof of its published formal statement. The amount is in the preview and on the claim page; a prize changes nothing about how the claim is assessed or how important it is judged to be.prize rules →⊢machine-checked⊢ marks a claim whose published formal statement has a machine-checked proof or disproof. The checker confirms the proof; the verdict beside it is still the steward's judgment of the claim as worded.prize rules →supportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →answersa candidate answer to the questionconstitution →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.