History
Share of Anthropic's observed AI-capability acceleration in October 2026 attributable to AI assistance (percent)
Defined and assessed
First pass on limited budget. Completed the definition (counterfactual share of the excess capability growth rate vs. Mar 2024–Oct 2025 baseline). Estimate: median 65%, 90% interval 25–95%, 5% outside for no real acceleration; shaded below METR's ~80% because evidence is mostly redacted by the interested party, METR flags non-AI factors as a possible full explanation, and interview evidence is mixed. No named arguments created this pass; four unplaced argument passages from the METR report remain for a later pass (candidate arguments: METR's multi-line attribution case; the non-AI-factors alternative).
Claim entered the graph