trailAI advances will increase US total factor productivity by less than one percent over ten years
Widespread generative AI adoption could raise global GDP by about 7% over ten years
Widespread generative AI adoption could raise annual US labor productivity growth by about 1.5 percentage points over ten years
Task-based calculation· for
Fewer than five percent of all US work tasks will be profitably automated or augmented by AI within ten years
atomic
AI delivers average labor cost savings of roughly a quarter on the tasks it affects
atomic
AI will generate large productivity gains from new tasks and new products within ten years
shared · shown elsewhere
Rival macroeconomic estimates· against
Generative AI is a significant contributor to the post-2022 acceleration in US labor productivity growth
shared · shown elsewhere
assumed
AI's aggregate productivity gains can be estimated, via Hulten's theorem, from task exposure and average task-level cost savings.
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AI advances will increase US total factor productivity by less than one percent over ten years
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2depended on by
this rests on ↓
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