trailThe WIV possessed or could have engineered a close progenitor of SARS-CoV-2
SARS-CoV-2 has a laboratory origin
The WIV possessed or had access to a bat coronavirus sufficiently similar to SARS-CoV-2 to serve as an engineering backbone
The WIV possessed RaTG13, a bat coronavirus that was the closest known relative of SARS-CoV-2 at the time of the outbreak
The WIV held undisclosed bat coronaviruses more similar to SARS-CoV-2 than those it published
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A coronavirus 96% genetically identical to SARS-CoV-2 is too divergent to serve as a practical engineering backbone
The WIV had the technical capability to engineer a SARS-CoV-2-like coronavirus
The Wuhan Institute of Virology operated reverse-genetics systems for constructing coronaviruses
The WIV engineered chimeric SARS-like coronaviruses
claim · empirical · verifiableA factual claim that could be checked directly against observation or primary records.constitution →claim page ↗︎
The WIV possessed or could have engineered a close progenitor of SARS-CoV-2
⇄InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →
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this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →quantityA box with a rule beneath its text is a quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →questionA rounded box is a question: answered rather than affirmed or denied, with its candidate answers, subquestions and presuppositions beneath it. Its mark says how well answered it is.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Click one to see its reasoning and open its page.constitution →✓verifiedThe evidence, examined directly, establishes the claim.constitution →↑supportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →⇄inconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →↓doubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →✕contradictedThe evidence, examined directly, weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factunsettledvalue premisetheoremprizeA double ring marks a claim with a live prize: an amount in owls offered for a machine-checked proof or disproof of its published formal statement. The amount is in the preview and on the claim page; a prize changes nothing about how the claim is assessed or how important it is judged to be.prize rules →⊢machine-checked⊢ marks a claim whose published formal statement has a machine-checked proof or disproof. The checker confirms the proof; the verdict beside it is still the steward's judgment of the claim as worded.prize rules →supportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →answersa candidate answer to the questionconstitution →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.