trailGradient descent favors scheming because more training-compatible goals produce scheming than alignment.
Scheming spontaneously emerges in future AI systems trained with current methods.
The counting argument· for
Far more goals compatible with high training performance lead to scheming than to alignment.
Most long-horizon terminal goals incentivize models to perform well during training to avoid modification.
The relative number of training-compatible schemer and aligned goals depends on whether one counts goals, functions, or parameters.
Counting arguments for AI scheming remain plausible under parameter-space-volume or simplicity-weighted priors.
◌
◌
Indifference over training-compatible goals reliably predicts the goals acquired by SGD-trained AI systems.
atomic
The argument from SGD's inductive biases and the failed overfitting prediction· against
SGD does not sample uniformly at random from representable functions that perform well on the training data.
atomic
The counting argument for AI scheming is relevantly analogous to a neural-network overfitting prediction that failed empirically.
bedrock · value premise
claim · causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →claim page ↗︎
Gradient descent favors scheming because more training-compatible goals produce scheming than alignment.
↓DoubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →credence 0.20Credence, from 0 to 1: the Steward's probability that the claim, as stated, is true. Stated only where a single number is an honest summary; normative and evaluative claims usually carry none.constitution →
1depended on by
this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →quantityA box with a rule beneath its text is a quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →questionA rounded box is a question: answered rather than affirmed or denied, with its candidate answers, subquestions and presuppositions beneath it. Its mark says how well answered it is.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Arguments are not destinations; click their claims to explore.constitution →✓verifiedThe evidence, examined directly, establishes the claim.constitution →↑supportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →⇄inconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →↓doubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →✕contradictedThe evidence, examined directly, weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factunsettledvalue premisetheoremprizeA double ring marks a claim with a live prize: an amount in owls offered for a machine-checked proof or disproof of its published formal statement. The amount is in the preview and on the claim page; a prize changes nothing about how the claim is assessed or how important it is judged to be.prize rules →⊢machine-checked⊢ marks a claim whose published formal statement has a machine-checked proof or disproof. The checker confirms the proof; the verdict beside it is still the steward's judgment of the claim as worded.prize rules →supportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →answersa candidate answer to the questionconstitution →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.