trailAI is likely to automate a large share of the economy suddenly rather than gradually.
Transformative economic and societal impacts of AI will unfold slowly, over decades rather than years.
The argument from recursive AI R&D automation· for
AI automation of AI research could trigger rapid recursive growth in AI capabilities.
Doubling AI software research input more than doubles software efficiency (research returns parameter r > 1).
bedrock · unsettled
Limited compute for experiments would bottleneck AI progress even if AI research labor were fully automated.
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AI systems will become capable of fully automating frontier AI research.
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The argument from diffusion bottlenecks· against
The speed of AI diffusion is limited by how quickly individuals, organizations, and institutions can adapt.
Productivity gains from general-purpose technologies lag adoption because complementary intangible investment and organizational redesign take time.
Enterprise use of AI in production lags far behind individual workers' use of generative AI tools.
Generative AI has been adopted by individuals faster than personal computers or the internet.
AI can automate organizational adaptation to AI, shortening delays in complementary investment.
bedrock · unsettled
AI's diffusion through the economy will follow the same dynamics as past general-purpose technologies.
AI automation of physical tasks has progressed more slowly than automation of cognitive tasks.
atomic
claim · causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →claim page ↗︎
AI is likely to automate a large share of the economy suddenly rather than gradually.
↓DoubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →credence 0.25Credence, from 0 to 1: the Steward's probability that the claim, as stated, is true. Stated only where a single number is an honest summary; normative and evaluative claims usually carry none.constitution →
1depended on by
this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →quantityA box with a rule beneath its text is a quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →questionA rounded box is a question: answered rather than affirmed or denied, with its candidate answers, subquestions and presuppositions beneath it. Its mark says how well answered it is.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Arguments are not destinations; click their claims to explore.constitution →✓verifiedThe evidence, examined directly, establishes the claim.constitution →↑supportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →⇄inconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →↓doubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →✕contradictedThe evidence, examined directly, weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factunsettledvalue premisetheoremprizeA double ring marks a claim with a live prize: an amount in owls offered for a machine-checked proof or disproof of its published formal statement. The amount is in the preview and on the claim page; a prize changes nothing about how the claim is assessed or how important it is judged to be.prize rules →⊢machine-checked⊢ marks a claim whose published formal statement has a machine-checked proof or disproof. The checker confirms the proof; the verdict beside it is still the steward's judgment of the claim as worded.prize rules →supportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →answersa candidate answer to the questionconstitution →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.