trailGenerative AI is a significant contributor to the post-2022 acceleration in US labor productivity growth
AI advances will increase US total factor productivity by less than one percent over ten years
Widespread generative AI adoption could raise annual US labor productivity growth by about 1.5 percentage points over ten years
From task-level gains to the aggregate· for
Generative AI tools substantially raise worker productivity on specific tasks in controlled studies
atomic
Missing aggregate signal and rival explanations· against
Generative AI adoption is too shallow across US firms to explain an aggregate productivity acceleration
atomic
Industries more exposed to AI show no differential productivity acceleration relative to less-exposed industries
atomic
Post-pandemic labor market churn and business formation account for most of the recent US productivity acceleration
atomic
assumed
US labor productivity growth has accelerated since 2022 above its pre-pandemic trend
claim · empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →claim page ↗︎
Generative AI is a significant contributor to the post-2022 acceleration in US labor productivity growth
⇄ContestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →credence 0.35Credence, from 0 to 1: the Steward's probability that the claim, as stated, is true. Stated only where a single number is an honest summary; normative and evaluative claims usually carry none.constitution →
2depended on by
this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Arguments are not destinations; click their claims to explore.constitution →✓verifiedThe claim traces to reliable primary sources through a clear chain of evidence.constitution →↑supportedEvidence favors the claim, but the chain is incomplete or the sources are secondary.constitution →⇄contestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →○unsupportedNo credible evidence found, though the claim is not contradicted.constitution →✕contradictedAvailable evidence weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factopen questionvalue premisesupportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.