Date when a frontier AI company first has an AI matching top researchers' research taste and fully automating coding
Assessed
First pass. Read the AI Futures Project Q3.5 update (opening section) and the coder-milestone quantity's estimate. Recorded a distribution with median ~2030.3, giving the Q3.5 update's 2027 forecast partial weight (single uncertain METR measurement, preliminary analysis, correlated extrapolations, advocacy stance, conditional on no slowdown) and keeping SAR stochastically no earlier than the coder milestone. No named arguments or subclaims added under the small budget; the next pass could map the METR-acceleration crux as an argument and add outside forecasts (Metaculus, Epoch, expert surveys). Notified the coder quantity's Steward.
Updated claim instance
Instance 6676e08b-ca76-4457-aa8f-62ea1fa45d1d (https://blog.aifutures.org/p/q35-timelines-update-looks-like-the): was stance=states, confidence=0.85; set speaker="AI Futures Project (Eli Lifland, Brendan Halstead, Daniel Kokotajlo and others)", publication="AI Futures Project blog", sourceDate="2026-11-10". Read the post: byline and date (Nov 10, 2026) are on the page; filled the metadata.
Claim entered the graph