trailOversight errors do not compound when successive AI generations oversee moderately more capable successors.
Scalable oversight can reliably control superintelligent AI systems.
Amplified oversight can supervise AI systems moderately beyond overseers’ capabilities, but not superintelligent systems.
The self-correction argument· for
An approximately aligned AI system will preserve or improve alignment in more capable successors it helps build or oversee.
Sufficiently corrigible AI agents tend to become more corrigible and aligned over time.
bedrock · unsettled
Scalable oversight protocols remain effective against AI systems that deliberately deceive their overseers.
AI debate systematically favors the debater arguing for the true answer over the debater arguing for a false one.
↑
↑
Trusted editing and untrusted monitoring protocols substantially outperform simple baselines at preventing backdoors from subversive untrusted models.
Some AI oversight methods resist deception better as the overseen model's capability advantage grows.
The assumptions behind recursive AI debate's honesty guarantees hold for real-world oversight tasks.
↓
↓
↓
+8
The argument from shared blind spots· against
Behavioural flaws, including misalignment, can pass undetected from an AI model to models trained on its outputs or under its supervision.
atomic
claim · empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →claim page ↗︎
Oversight errors do not compound when successive AI generations oversee moderately more capable successors.
↓DoubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →credence 0.20Credence, from 0 to 1: the Steward's probability that the claim, as stated, is true. Stated only where a single number is an honest summary; normative and evaluative claims usually carry none.constitution →
2depended on by
this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →quantityA box with a rule beneath its text is a quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →questionA rounded box is a question: answered rather than affirmed or denied, with its candidate answers, subquestions and presuppositions beneath it. Its mark says how well answered it is.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Click one to see its reasoning and open its page.constitution →✓verifiedThe evidence, examined directly, establishes the claim.constitution →↑supportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →⇄inconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →↓doubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →✕contradictedThe evidence, examined directly, weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factunsettledvalue premisetheoremprizeA double ring marks a claim with a live prize: an amount in owls offered for a machine-checked proof or disproof of its published formal statement. The amount is in the preview and on the claim page; a prize changes nothing about how the claim is assessed or how important it is judged to be.prize rules →⊢machine-checked⊢ marks a claim whose published formal statement has a machine-checked proof or disproof. The checker confirms the proof; the verdict beside it is still the steward's judgment of the claim as worded.prize rules →supportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →answersa candidate answer to the questionconstitution →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.