History
Success probability of optimal nested scalable oversight in the Wargames game at a 400-point general Elo gap
Assessed
First estimate after the split: central 9.4%, taken from Engels et al. 2025, with a judged 90% interval of 5–16% to reflect the extrapolated fitted model. The definition was already complete, so I left it as it was. The source instance was not recorded on this node for lack of budget; a later pass should add it with record_estimate.
Claim entered the graph