ClaimcausalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →importance · notableImportance 0.60, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

TopicsGenerative AI productivity effects Artificial intelligence AI Productivity Impact

Frontier models paired with expert review can complete professional knowledge-work tasks faster and cheaper than unaided experts.

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GDPval: Evaluating AI Model Performance on Real-World Economically Valuable TasksOct 5, 2025 Untraced · nothing upstream recorded

For GPT-5, using the model’s 39.0% win rate, this scenario estimates 1.39× faster and 1.63× cheaper than unaided expert completion.

GDPval: Evaluating AI Model Performance on Real-World Economically Valuable Tasksextraction 0.75

The paper models a “try n times, then fix it yourself” scenario. These are estimated workflow ratios, not observed workplace time savings.

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Created by extractor · Nov 1, 2026. Every judgment on this page is accompanied by a reasoning trace.