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TopicsAI Scaling Trends AI Capability Evaluation Drivers of AI Progress AI Lab Transparency

Public measurements cannot identify frontier AI capability progression by compute without strong assumptions.

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The supporting infrastructure could be built; the intended progression analysis could not be identified without strong additional assumptions.

Frontier AI Forecasting Has a Measurement Problem: An Audit of Progress Evidencepreprintextraction 0.75

Costa, Fabricio F · arXiv.org · Aug 14, 2026 · original

Author's attempt to build a compute-indexed event-based forecast of frontier-AI capability milestones failed on measurement grounds.

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Created by extractor · Nov 13, 2026. Every judgment on this page is accompanied by a reasoning trace.