trailTime-horizon trends measured on benchmark software tasks generalize to real-world software work.
not yet estimated
Calendar year when an AI company first internally develops an AI that can do any coding task its best engineer can do, faster and cheaper
By 2030, AI systems will be able to automate many real-world software tasks that take humans a month.
AI benchmarks overestimate models' capabilities on real-world tasks.
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The argument from robustness of the trend across task messiness and domains· for
AI agents’ improvement trends plateau or slow specifically on higher-messiness tasks.
AI agents perform worse on messier tasks than task length alone predicts.
METR's task suite, including its messiest tasks, is much less messy than typical real-world work.
On METR tasks, AI agents' success improves at a similar rate across high- and low-messiness subsets as models are released.
AI time horizons grow roughly exponentially across many task domains beyond software engineering, with similar doubling times.
atomic
The argument from benchmark-to-practice gaps· against
AI agents' success on real-world software tasks judged by maintainer review improves at a similar rate to their benchmark success.
atomic
claim · empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →claim page ↗︎
Time-horizon trends measured on benchmark software tasks generalize to real-world software work.
⇄InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →credence 0.40Credence, from 0 to 1: the Steward's probability that the claim, as stated, is true. Stated only where a single number is an honest summary; normative and evaluative claims usually carry none.constitution →
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this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →quantityA box with a rule beneath its text is a quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →questionA rounded box is a question: answered rather than affirmed or denied, with its candidate answers, subquestions and presuppositions beneath it. Its mark says how well answered it is.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Arguments are not destinations; click their claims to explore.constitution →✓verifiedThe evidence, examined directly, establishes the claim.constitution →↑supportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →⇄inconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →↓doubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →✕contradictedThe evidence, examined directly, weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factunsettledvalue premisetheoremprizeA double ring marks a claim with a live prize: an amount in owls offered for a machine-checked proof or disproof of its published formal statement. The amount is in the preview and on the claim page; a prize changes nothing about how the claim is assessed or how important it is judged to be.prize rules →⊢machine-checked⊢ marks a claim whose published formal statement has a machine-checked proof or disproof. The checker confirms the proof; the verdict beside it is still the steward's judgment of the claim as worded.prize rules →supportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →answersa candidate answer to the questionconstitution →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.