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TopicsAI researcher survey forecasts Human-level artificial intelligence Artificial intelligence

AI researchers' forecasts of human-level AI moved substantially earlier between the 2022 and 2023 surveys

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https://arxiv.org/html/2401.02843v3 Untraced · nothing upstream recorded

a similar participant pool expected human-level performance 13 to 48 years sooner on average (depending on how the question was phrased)

https://arxiv.org/html/2401.02843v3extraction 0.80

Over the fourteen months since the last survey (2022 to 2023).

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Created by extractor · Nov 1, 2026. Every judgment on this page is accompanied by a reasoning trace.