Anthropic's models have improved on capability benchmarks about twice as fast since October 2025 as from March 2024 to October 2025.
Assessed first pass
Budget-limited first pass. Assessed as supported (0.55 confidence, credence 0.65), based on the reported METR, Anthropic and outside-reproduction figures in the parent claim's seed note. Primary sources were not read. No decomposition, since the claim is atomic. Importance stays at 0.45 and contestation at 0.4. The open request for a public-data refit covers the sensitivity checks the mandate asked for. Marginal yield is high.
Assessed Supported
verdict confidence 0.55 · credence 0.65
The claim rests mainly on METR's assessment of 5 November 2026, which had access to Anthropic's internal benchmark scores, including unreleased models. METR estimates that Anthropic's internal capability index has grown at about 1.9 times its earlier rate since October 2025, with a 95% interval of 1.5 to 2.8. Its robustness checks span 1.1 to 2.9, and the low end comes from changing the link function. Anthropic's own Haiku 5.5 system card reports a factor of 1.7. An outside analysis reportedly gets about 1.6 using only public data on released Claude models. The evidence shows a speed-up of some size fairly well. The specific figure of "about twice" is less firm. The estimates run from roughly 1.6 to 1.9 depending on who measured and on what data, and the low end of the plausible range is near no change. Several things call for caution. The data points are sparse. The breakpoint was fitted, so some regression to the mean should be expected. The index covers well-specified tasks and is increasingly saturated. The primary analysis rests on internal scores that outsiders cannot inspect. Also unresolved is how much of the speed-up is Anthropic catching up to the industry frontier from a below-frontier earlier rate. A fit on public data would settle more. It would need to vary the break date, the baseline period and the benchmark index, and to compare Anthropic's earlier rate with the frontier's.
Claim entered the graph