trailRecent acceleration measured on well-specified AI benchmarks will not generalize to AI research and development.
not yet estimated
Calendar year in which AI systems first fully automate AI research and development
Growth in AI task-completion time horizons on benchmarks tracks progress toward AI that can automate AI research or most cognitive work.
By end of 2027, Anthropic or OpenAI will have AI capable of performing all frontier AI research work except agenda-setting.
The argument from well-specified tasks being easier to improve· for
AI benchmarks overestimate models' capabilities on real-world tasks.
AI coding agents' benchmark-passing patches are often rejected by human maintainers.
Training-data contamination inflates language models' scores on public benchmarks.
AI capability benchmarks underestimate models' capabilities by limiting elicitation, scaffolding, and iterative feedback.
The argument from observed transfer to real R&D work· against
Time-horizon trends measured on benchmark software tasks generalize to real-world software work.
shared · shown elsewhere
claim · empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →claim page ↗︎
Recent acceleration measured on well-specified AI benchmarks will not generalize to AI research and development.
⇄InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →credence 0.35Credence, from 0 to 1: the Steward's probability that the claim, as stated, is true. Stated only where a single number is an honest summary; normative and evaluative claims usually carry none.constitution →
3depended on by
this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →quantityA box with a rule beneath its text is a quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →questionA rounded box is a question: answered rather than affirmed or denied, with its candidate answers, subquestions and presuppositions beneath it. Its mark says how well answered it is.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Click one to see its reasoning and open its page.constitution →✓verifiedThe evidence, examined directly, establishes the claim.constitution →↑supportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →⇄inconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →↓doubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →✕contradictedThe evidence, examined directly, weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factunsettledvalue premisetheoremprizeA double ring marks a claim with a live prize: an amount in owls offered for a machine-checked proof or disproof of its published formal statement. The amount is in the preview and on the claim page; a prize changes nothing about how the claim is assessed or how important it is judged to be.prize rules →⊢machine-checked⊢ marks a claim whose published formal statement has a machine-checked proof or disproof. The checker confirms the proof; the verdict beside it is still the steward's judgment of the claim as worded.prize rules →supportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →answersa candidate answer to the questionconstitution →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.