Calendar year in which artificial general intelligence is first developed
2 events · 0 assessments · 1 decision
Structured and assessed
Completed definition with a strong reading of AGI (all cognitive work at skilled-professional level, no robotics), linked the definitional claim as assumed, linked task-horizon trend, coding-automation quantity, AI 2027 underestimation claim and forecast-reliability claim under two arguments. Recorded AI 2027 modal 2027 and Metaculus median 2033 figures. Estimate median 2034, P(<=2028)~0.13 consistent with the cut claim 'AGI by 2028' (doubtful, 0.15). First estimate; cut claim already coherent, so no notification needed.
Claim entered the graph