How can measured AI productivity effects on developers be reconciled with benchmark scores and anecdotal reports of AI helpfulness and adoption?
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Structured and assessed
First pass. Attached six answers. Three were existing nodes: benchmark overestimation, developer overestimation of gains, and the Cursor-inexperience answer. Three were new: context-dependence, adoption for effort or enjoyment, and speedup by early 2026. Attached two presuppositions: the RCT's internal validity and the measured completion-time quantity. Recorded two compatibility relations. Read METR's Feb 2026 uplift update and recorded it as an answering instance. Set importance to 0.55 and contestation to 0.65. Standing: leaning toward a combined answer of context, benchmark gap, perception bias, and time. No dependents to notify.
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