History
Ratio of AECI frontier-model growth rate after October 2025 to before October 2025, across all AI developers
Assessed
First pass. Read the METR report's AECI robustness appendix and confirmed the 1.4x frontier-wide figure, its compositional caveat, and METR's two interpretations. Completed the definition (piecewise-linear fit with a break near October 2025). Estimate: median 1.4x, 90% interval 1.1x to 2.1x. No decomposition, since there is a single source figure and the interpretive dispute lives in the dependent claim. No named arguments. The dependent claim already uses 1.4x vs 1.9x, so the estimate does not change its premise and no notification is needed.
Claim entered the graph