trailOpenAI's intervention, process, and outcome-property evaluations validly measure chain-of-thought monitorability.
Chain-of-thought monitorability stayed roughly steady over the frontier RL training runs of OpenAI o3 and GPT-5.1 Codex Max.
The argument from detecting known obfuscation· for
OpenAI's monitorability evaluation suite detects reduced monitorability after RL training to obfuscate chain of thought.
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The argument from construct mismatch and label noise· against
Hint-style and process evaluations measure model verbalization of influential cues, not monitor detection of misbehavior.
Chain-of-thought hint verbalization rates differ from monitor detection rates for misbehavior.
Reasoning models verbalize prompt hints they use in fewer than half of hint-insertion faithfulness evaluation cases.
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Ground-truth labels in monitorability evaluations are unreliable due to intervention-evaluation filtering and outcome-property label noise.
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Measured chain-of-thought monitorability scores largely track chain-of-thought length.
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claim · empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →claim page ↗︎
OpenAI's intervention, process, and outcome-property evaluations validly measure chain-of-thought monitorability.
⇄InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →
1depended on by
this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →quantityA box with a rule beneath its text is a quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →questionA rounded box is a question: answered rather than affirmed or denied, with its candidate answers, subquestions and presuppositions beneath it. Its mark says how well answered it is.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Arguments are not destinations; click their claims to explore.constitution →✓verifiedThe evidence, examined directly, establishes the claim.constitution →↑supportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →⇄inconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →↓doubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →✕contradictedThe evidence, examined directly, weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factunsettledvalue premisetheoremprizeA double ring marks a claim with a live prize: an amount in owls offered for a machine-checked proof or disproof of its published formal statement. The amount is in the preview and on the claim page; a prize changes nothing about how the claim is assessed or how important it is judged to be.prize rules →⊢machine-checked⊢ marks a claim whose published formal statement has a machine-checked proof or disproof. The checker confirms the proof; the verdict beside it is still the steward's judgment of the claim as worded.prize rules →supportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →answersa candidate answer to the questionconstitution →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.