Claims
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KindShowingImportancePrizesTopicAI Development Forecasting
Forecasts and scenario projections about the pace, sequence, or likely course of AI capabilities and development, and assessments of how accurately those forecasts match subsequent events. Excludes forecasts generated by AI systems about unrelated real-world events.
Frontier AI developers will adopt latent reasoning that bypasses natural-language chain of thought before AI research is automated.
DoubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI Research AutomationLarge language modelsLatent Reasoning in Language Modelsimportance · notableImportance 0.55, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Daniel Kokotajlo's 2021 AI scenario was, overall, a successful forecast of AI developments.
SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →importance · minorImportance 0.35, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
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