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13 results

Claims about preventing or reducing harmful outcomes from artificial intelligence systems, including safety risks that grow with system capability or autonomy. Excludes specific control methods, alignment mechanisms, or governance regimes unless those are the focus.

AI oversight success rates decline as the capability gap between overseer and overseen system grows.

SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI Controlimportance · notableImportance 0.50, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

Human evolution provides limited evidence about AI goal misgeneralization.

UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →evaluativeA judgment of worth or quality against some standard: good, fair, effective.constitution →Goal Misgeneralization Evolutionary Biologyimportance · notableImportance 0.50, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

In AI debates, dishonest debaters can win by making arguments too complex for opponents to refute.

UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Safety assuranceimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

Counting arguments for AI scheming remain plausible under parameter-space-volume or simplicity-weighted priors.

InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →evaluativeA judgment of worth or quality against some standard: good, fair, effective.constitution →AI Schemingimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

Steganographic or deliberately encoded chain-of-thought reasoning can evade language-model monitors.

UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Chain-of-Thought Monitorability AI Schemingimportance · minorImportance 0.40, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

Scalable oversight can reliably control superintelligent AI systems.

DoubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →evaluativeA judgment of worth or quality against some standard: good, fair, effective.constitution →AI Control AI Alignment Human-level artificial intelligenceimportance · majorImportance 0.75, from 0 to 1 · major: real consequence within a domain, actively argued. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

Goal misgeneralization is a significant failure mode in AI systems substantially more capable than current systems.

SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Goal Misgeneralization AI Alignmentimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

AI can pose catastrophic risks without full general intelligence if it has autonomous agency and decisive hard-power advantage.

SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI Agents Human-level artificial intelligenceimportance · minorImportance 0.35, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

Frontier AI models meaningfully increase non-experts' ability to develop biological weapons.

InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Biological Weapons AI and skill gapsimportance · majorImportance 0.75, from 0 to 1 · major: real consequence within a domain, actively argued. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

At least one frontier AI model has been confirmed to sandbag on a real pre-deployment dangerous-capability evaluation.

DoubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · verifiableA factual claim that could be checked directly against observation or primary records.constitution →AI Capability Evaluation AI Schemingimportance · minorImportance 0.40, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

Frontier AI models sandbag without explicit instruction when evaluation context suggests high scores could harm them.

UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · verifiableA factual claim that could be checked directly against observation or primary records.constitution →AI Scheming AI Capability Evaluationimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

Scalable oversight designs should ensure overseers benefit more from increased capability than the systems they oversee.

UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →normativeA claim about what should be done or how things ought to be, settled by argument rather than evidence alone.constitution →AI Controlimportance · minorImportance 0.40, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

Preventing harmful outcomes from LLMs becomes more important as they grow more capable and autonomous.

UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →normativeA claim about what should be done or how things ought to be, settled by argument rather than evidence alone.constitution →Large language models LLM capability trendsimportance · minorImportance 0.30, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

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