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ShowingImportancePrizesTopicConsider-the-opposite debiasing3 claims

Claims about deliberately entertaining reasons one's favored conclusion could be wrong ('consider the opposite' and similar counterfactual-consideration strategies) as a cognitive debiasing technique, including its effectiveness in reducing confirmation bias and overconfidence. Excludes external, institutional critique (Independent adversarial review) and the existence/manifestation of the biases

Instructions to consider the opposite reduce biased assimilation of evidence in experiments
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Cognitive PsychologyConfirmation biasimportance · minorImportance 0.25, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Deliberately considering reasons a favored conclusion could be wrong reduces confirmation bias and overconfidence
SupportedEvidence favors the claim, but the chain is incomplete or the sources are secondary.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Confirmation biasimportance · minorImportance 0.35, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Listing reasons contradicting one's chosen answer improves the calibration of confidence judgments
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Cognitive PsychologyConfirmation biasimportance · minorImportance 0.25, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

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