Claims
Search the graph by meaning. Each result carries its current verdict; open one to see its decomposition, provenance, and the reasoning behind the assessment.
KindShowingImportancePrizesTopicEpidemiology
The study of the distribution, determinants, and control of disease in populations, including outbreak investigation, surveillance, and study design.
The earliest available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences are a biased, unrepresentative subset of early infections
SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →SARS-CoV-2 phylogeneticsimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
High egg consumption is associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk in a dose-response manner.
DoubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Egg consumptionAtherosclerotic cardiovascular diseaseimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
The early Wuhan patient reported with December 1, 2019 symptom onset actually developed COVID-19 around December 26, 2019
SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · verifiableA factual claim that could be checked directly against observation or primary records.constitution →Early COVID-19 cases in Wuhanimportance · minorImportance 0.40, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
The first reported COVID-19 patient's actual symptom onset was December 16, 2019, not December 1, 2019
InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Early COVID-19 cases in Wuhanimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Early COVID-19 cases cluster spatially around the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market
SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Huanan Seafood Wholesale MarketEarly COVID-19 cases in WuhanSpatial clustering statisticsimportance · notableImportance 0.60, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Existing technologies are sufficient to eradicate disease-carrying mosquito species.
DoubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Mosquito Eradicationimportance · minorImportance 0.35, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Early COVID-19 case ascertainment was biased toward cases linked to the Huanan market
InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Huanan Seafood Wholesale MarketEarly COVID-19 cases in WuhanSARS-CoV-2 originimportance · notableImportance 0.60, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
The population-density null model assumes early cases are distributed proportional to residential population, ignoring contagious spread
VerifiedThe evidence, examined directly, establishes the claim.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Spatial clustering statisticsEarly COVID-19 cases in Wuhanimportance · settledImportance 0.20, from 0 to 1 · settled: uncontested, so low even when much depends on it. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
The association between egg consumption and cardiovascular disease risk varies significantly by geographic region.
SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Egg consumptionGeographic heterogeneity in diet-disease associationsAtherosclerotic cardiovascular diseaseimportance · minorImportance 0.35, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Early Wuhan COVID-19 case definitions required or emphasized an epidemiological link to the Huanan Seafood Market
VerifiedThe evidence, examined directly, establishes the claim.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Huanan Seafood Wholesale MarketEarly COVID-19 cases in Wuhanimportance · minorImportance 0.30, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Raising a biomarker does not necessarily cause disease
VerifiedThe evidence, examined directly, establishes the claim.constitution →causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →Biomarker-disease causationimportance · minorImportance 0.35, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
A statistical association between a biomarker and disease can arise from confounding or reverse causation rather than causation
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Biomarker-disease causationimportance · settledImportance 0.20, from 0 to 1 · settled: uncontested, so low even when much depends on it. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Some interventions that modify a biomarker fail to improve the corresponding clinical outcome
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Biomarker-disease causationimportance · settledImportance 0.20, from 0 to 1 · settled: uncontested, so low even when much depends on it. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
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