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ShowingImportancePrizesTopicSARS-CoV-2 phylogenetics
Phylogenetic inference on SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences, including tree topology, rooting, lineage assignment, mutation rates, and reconstruction of early emergence and spread.
Pekar et al.'s two-spillover phylodynamic inference is robust to model assumptions
ContestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →SARS-CoV-2 lineages A and BSARS-CoV-2 originStatistical Uncertainty Analysisimportance · notableImportance 0.60, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Two basal SARS-CoV-2 lineages are statistically improbable under a single spillover event
ContestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →SARS-CoV-2 lineages A and BSARS-CoV-2 originZoonotic spilloverimportance · notableImportance 0.55, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Intermediate A-B SARS-CoV-2 genomes existed among early human cases
ContestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →SARS-CoV-2 lineages A and BSARS-CoV-2 originimportance · notableImportance 0.50, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Pekar et al.'s two-spillover conclusion depends on the phylogenetic rooting of early SARS-CoV-2 sequences
SupportedEvidence favors the claim, but the chain is incomplete or the sources are secondary.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →SARS-CoV-2 originSARS-CoV-2 lineages A and Bimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
The correct rooting of the early SARS-CoV-2 phylogenetic tree is uncertain
ContestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →SARS-CoV-2 lineages A and BSARS-CoV-2 originimportance · notableImportance 0.60, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Excluding intermediate lineage A/B SARS-CoV-2 genomes materially affects Pekar et al.'s inferred number of spillovers
ContestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →SARS-CoV-2 lineages A and BSARS-CoV-2 originimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Genuine A/B intermediate genomes would be inconsistent with a two-spillover origin of SARS-CoV-2
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →SARS-CoV-2 lineages A and BSARS-CoV-2 originimportance · minorImportance 0.30, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Reported intermediate A-B SARS-CoV-2 genomes are genuine biological intermediates, not sequencing artifacts
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →SARS-CoV-2 lineages A and BSARS-CoV-2 originCoronavirus recombinationimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Pekar et al. excluded intermediate lineage A/B genomes from their spillover analysis
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →SARS-CoV-2 lineages A and BSARS-CoV-2 originZoonotic spilloverimportance · settledImportance 0.15, from 0 to 1 · settled: uncontested, so low even when much depends on it. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
The WIV possessed RaTG13, a bat coronavirus that was the closest known relative of SARS-CoV-2 at the time of the outbreak
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Wuhan Institute of VirologySARS-CoV-2 originimportance · settledImportance 0.15, from 0 to 1 · settled: uncontested, so low even when much depends on it. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Lineage A and lineage B differ by two nucleotide substitutions at positions 8782 and 28144
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →SARS-CoV-2 lineages A and Bimportance · settledImportance 0.12, from 0 to 1 · settled: uncontested, so low even when much depends on it. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
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