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NASA's Space Shuttle program (STS, 1981-2011): the orbiter fleet, launch operations, and its accident and reliability record, including the Challenger and Columbia losses and pre-accident failure-risk estimates. Covers claims about the Shuttle's design, risk estimates, and failure history; excludes other launch vehicles.

Pre-Challenger official estimates of Space Shuttle failure risk were far below the realized failure rate

UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Probabilistic risk assessment Low-probability riskimportance · settledImportance 0.20, from 0 to 1 · settled: uncontested, so low even when much depends on it. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

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