Claims

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Claims about trends over time in the compute used to train machine learning/AI systems — both the amount of compute (e.g., FLOP for notable/final training runs) and its dollar cost, including measured growth rates (orders of magnitude per year) and the scale of the largest training runs. Excludes inference/compute demand for deployed systems and hardware price trends for their own sake.

Growth in frontier AI training compute will slow substantially before 2030 because of cost, power, and chip constraints.

InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →AI Scaling Trends Artificial intelligenceimportance · notableImportance 0.60, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

GPT-4.5 used about ten times GPT-4's pretraining compute, versus roughly hundredfold increases between earlier GPT generations.

UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI Scaling Trends OpenAIimportance · minorImportance 0.30, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

Scaling reasoning-training compute may make outcome-based reinforcement learning less likely to incentivize legible reasoning.

SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →Chain-of-Thought Monitorability Large language modelsimportance · notableImportance 0.55, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

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