Minerval

← run 0b35cae0

Run step

Step 7: assistant

2026-11-14 02:37:20 UTC · previous step · next step

thinking

Calls code_execution
{
  "code": "import json\nr=await web_search({\"query\":\"METR time horizon 80% success horizon shorter than 50% limitations messiness\"})\nfor x in r[:5]: print(x['title'],x['url'],x['content'][:600].replace('\\n',' '),'\\n')"
}
Calls web_search
{
  "query": "METR time horizon 80% success horizon shorter than 50% limitations messiness"
}
web_search_tool_result
{
  "type": "web_search_tool_result",
  "caller": {
    "type": "code_execution_20260120",
    "tool_id": "srvtoolu_015VZzT8xQUSBnEeWeidUrfJ"
  },
  "content": [
    {
      "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ghhJh6SBYXxDktnZX/metr-time-horizon-2-0-the-benchmark-you-ve-been-waiting-for",
      "type": "web_search_result",
      "title": "METR Time Horizon 2.0—The benchmark you’ve been waiting for — EA Forum",
      "page_age": "128 days ago",
      "encrypted_content": "EtENCioIFRgCIiRhOGFlOWMyMy1iYWVmLTRiYzctOWJjYS04YTM3MTE5YWVhMGMSDGO0cGZqwE7Xx1JDSBoMOnPyeb3lO2cL9f5tIjAbheNQTAOs+VmdTa9kC2l7l00/ZEBcZcjeWVsylCQmnjwFlhq890QxS+xgPMbYvNcq1AyOdHBn1vcU76A6H2vZ+y0T2rSgOgPCOuhHCalcLhARUTv4f6AZi+nh8nQli4lQrmlK5hGtg+cYUm634viQf4XfOAH2syA5/08MWng8qpsJPpwGEHntrilQgGSaokEuZvtTI+ptzTYKkgFNuWfEO13Rt/BTF0E6rz746ZC3CSyHAZeW+1K9IEY2ukGQuI0rNzibaPQhVBgRiT9dbgfimoH1yrCw8mfoUxoEGDHw56yLiSRlIFy1XFYkJ1Q/5eFyyAtLeXfoiArjoCi637g0ybiDioCbY8OWRSP8jNxClikn/KjymKhlOhT+UE4XVsE3aSOMbUfH8lQkDYHUf7YhjDO5FzbzSIBXSdCMvXavVKa4OQitRpqOa74iWOGYFLYqpxPCPHYP7+yFCn0KpUiwHhMsDEz6ifXE21q/2s8EN7HuJPOpt5n1WLBfsDcBLD3wZZtA72PR1i4s6GbfKz+vmxYGx4hYzqN7W3WgU9n0ogTjoBPaRRyCzErebd70yntOonjlA395Tbmzefh7wjcrrSK65SAKNZfyJOtMtSGbFaB5gY1x7194ddLyyc9ydVs94gGDRVSpK2Ackc0W4w13rAI+UYur0MHbXlO/IDVHqC8kORQkgdC1X1knn7W3jnSMmzzlcmJuLZGPj+mKA3OxSmvMVg5YiWUmX4cgepRiHkZaco0F6Z1PWsOE4yxvAKmZhHhMwUZleBaAhlZAS/KYZSbI3YoFslaK+4FnfVdQqStoqGVLO7M3l/GazuHGA5Eveqc7vZ1S4A482bn0PJ5/Q6PD8GBFUWPfYZjyp4jis3MXUElgbrhXITcpXxpTV/gL6OjCOvJk93l7XptkDQ5NnpN6YpN73vFD9t5RCIK5mUnD+maIY3ZFwd/6NGUERKLKWn9sh0gTAc0Rh9wU+Qqw306cZX38ISu3pLuT/J7WBh+C05R32LaD2sBSHFqUKQiOPFnetO7yY/JEclT9GoEnKUQjRDcCJ99GjIdQcdmXL0nnRVgMrmQQkrl5FOlQQIW1g8D3nO2r3E3dO3frx6pPEC7z0F9Q8jB+nPaOxF6SXEdoxnoQzo15K4uw7wrG6BPQg4BhWLfyGljoDlGrGe93XU6xvpemFP3lQWcLaWE459JZSf6Hb2U0dQe8TB/5ErEN5t1iMFhqfw62F2gL6qevad+E7XwVpw+a581dSOX+IU+5Z33zWjVS3tDy6AbLvMYvkkm/PzLr4U+YLzwDU2gmVRrbb7Uku7CNrDLvNApNQLe5I4Zj3ra5qknqWmZ5ox5COh3pLjUmFLonzFoDBu53GLd91tsOkSOp0UvsW3sDu0x+GysnSk5AWMX0L5c3cD1zXc6x0mqH75FsOXZi3dpw0yWOkrcJ299fGwF1+90tQ/MXpCdjC+4S4fHFIYHqSlNkjkU3Q3EBjmeouS3XcJSMdzmcVP005A02tx+FM+tqzjZnpcZX2tgO9WyQp9W+N67p9UdPe9Mkkl2nv2G/9IV0ZWVNMPYBJP+xgq0onfj6kAmHObDgjeZBzeYoEw61EVyuDRl5dDAsRuDNHYRcO0fCqVf25dL5g1ix6ZzD8F/m1r3981+QMmktCxenwQUZW+4vhSRixNlwLUNtLrwcW41B9RVTvWarx02RD9hzZWGGRU+he9jnf/NJj9JJjlkFNiffN1RTDD1hVvcHr35smts3pJG/2/LQxNN2dLOCOhrRAJvVDbBUH4O3TYMPANBp6Fom5IqyrcAQmyitl1fw7MRm+ip4LA/mWOrzS8oN4pPZrgyHPZr0AIPWFGZgoA7v/U+eymsfYzKbIiUKzhqbSAnVEvwbdTofyFso4AJV25iZojA7ivER5eeLPWWldl2AiUoA/dG9zn3JhUQbNUC8fqrmZEH3h2Xd8mgUwk1XEtPcoi5u/2Eq32OzSMHcjso0iYhPtX0nq3e/XARYzBo7/fvBmY2cT4vVuRs35BNUa97t5GwGBILDTHNgKXtcUN2MQwJkW0sZlDoQ/KCSCkLRK6RmlQ6ao6pssjMoPvfj7/rcnRNhoVrhA0TP3VKE2u/HjkWbWTyuGEtmEvCOZkctNrKFr/CMNznvGhc5IBiBvreJwHZQ/QQDrVbe0datCotGxSYREutWt58j/ySOZCOaRaHScCWmvryvDwODOL/TsX+xQmKzxQfSe0AYAw=="
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.alphaxiv.org/abs/2503.14499",
      "type": "web_search_result",
      "title": "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Software Tasks",
      "page_age": "127 days ago",
      "encrypted_content": "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"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://metavert.io/metr-benchmarking",
      "type": "web_search_result",
      "title": "METR Benchmarking",
      "page_age": "37 days ago",
      "encrypted_content": "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"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.14499",
      "type": "web_search_result",
      "title": "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Software Tasks",
      "page_age": null,
      "encrypted_content": "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"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://medium.com/@AIchats/are-ai-time-horizon-doubling-every-seven-months-e337162eec83",
      "type": "web_search_result",
      "title": "Are AI time horizon doubling every seven months?",
      "page_age": "418 days ago",
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    },
    {
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2505.05115",
      "type": "web_search_result",
      "title": "Is there a half-life for the success rates of AI agents?",
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    {
      "url": "https://ai.noblerworks.com/papers/techniques/145-metr-time-horizons/summary/",
      "type": "web_search_result",
      "title": "METR Time Horizons Paper Summary (2025)",
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    },
    {
      "url": "https://agitracker.io/blog/metr-time-horizons-2026/",
      "type": "web_search_result",
      "title": "The 10x-a-year clock: what METR's AI time horizons really show",
      "page_age": "52 days ago",
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      "title": "METR",
      "page_age": null,
      "encrypted_content": "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"
    }
  ],
  "tool_use_id": "srvtoolu_01S43vyc8Vmju1NcyJsweLrE"
}
code_execution_tool_result
{
  "type": "code_execution_tool_result",
  "content": {
    "type": "encrypted_code_execution_result",
    "stderr": "Traceback (most recent call last):\n  File \"/usr/local/lib/python3.11/asyncio/runners.py\", line 190, in run\n    return runner.run(main)\n           ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n  File \"/usr/local/lib/python3.11/asyncio/runners.py\", line 118, in run\n    return self._loop.run_until_complete(task)\n           ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n  File \"/usr/local/lib/python3.11/asyncio/base_events.py\", line 654, in run_until_complete\n    return future.result()\n           ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n  File \"/tmp/srvtoolu_015VZzT8xQUSBnEeWeidUrfJ/cell.py\", line 10, in <module>\n    for x in r[:5]: print(x['title'],x['url'],x['content'][:600].replace('\\n',' '),'\\n')\n                          ~^^^^^^^^^\nTypeError: string indices must be integers, not 'str'\n",
    "content": [],
    "return_code": 1,
    "encrypted_stdout": "Eo4BCioIFRgCIiRhOGFlOWMyMy1iYWVmLTRiYzctOWJjYS04YTM3MTE5YWVhMGMSDGp7PstNYNM5ER8RhhoM8PrJtkU+NenI2vMdIjDuXW1qiYrURkge4rG3y/4jy6IqS87uuCQJXnca8LNH9mn+KSBmWOiSkva3LmYvt+kqElCxZWhxNX9RIPwUelD+ajCAFxgD"
  },
  "tool_use_id": "srvtoolu_015VZzT8xQUSBnEeWeidUrfJ"
}
Calls code_execution
{
  "code": "r=await web_search({\"query\":\"METR time horizon 80% success horizon shorter than 50% limitations\"})\nif isinstance(r,str): r=json.loads(r)\nfor x in r[:5]: print(x.get('title'),x.get('url'),str(x.get('content'))[:600].replace('\\n',' '),'\\n')"
}
Calls web_search
{
  "query": "METR time horizon 80% success horizon shorter than 50% limitations"
}
web_search_tool_result
{
  "type": "web_search_tool_result",
  "caller": {
    "type": "code_execution_20260120",
    "tool_id": "srvtoolu_012VgwWgKdsot9JEsFVGnoU5"
  },
  "content": [
    {
      "url": "https://metavert.io/metr-benchmarking",
      "type": "web_search_result",
      "title": "METR Benchmarking",
      "page_age": "37 days ago",
      "encrypted_content": "EroNCioIFRgCIiRhOGFlOWMyMy1iYWVmLTRiYzctOWJjYS04YTM3MTE5YWVhMGMSDHk1Fp0lVkOWu4lzaRoM3UAUI9JhYuIJgl/+IjB5N5X0zcfbfL/EW8PEuC/0KJ5/twVUOdrEaE+C/iicje0vkPfJMhAhbejRPgdA6ycqvQwF7w18QAPPcCJXx8oCSI3bhGqKGcw8JoxMcELs9DRXbfAhU0MMbL5jgbzA7EobAZO+QWoDT9lHlKX2cx+iVhlNZCtxAmtG6IWNSa+Qr0vEm/3AXdGCfsiaZ0DcidHKm+dgjmwLRRcoojGnzBm0k7NLOAir+ro/xZoSZaDvrFhLJijPkr+orgj4tDlkj2glIVTWhc48H5LIcGxG2qpUYROjE4f3eLoWM+QfVlRNa1dCAw9r9nvdKbAUxqJ2E2QNMx3eZC96SpyqZ52zovHyPuDSyTo6t+vW3m40Ihn82y8qIzaZ3ZI3R4yRu3ZwfbeGfld7TUN0jIemmRhVdMzBoh7msUVsQYXu2B4GP2DoOci8XHmkXPe83JeHi34WtwLd8S2z0cxhPiIftsXBWd7oOgiI+zxWsGeGc1vaKdjJL3RmN8XeKh7WghzMYb4mcPod9WxaBMc+k6aVVzH6qloSE9KL9OsyWoVyWIrZEelH5go+3KeTiAjGh4GWwzbl5gl+vLCJIHcV6BJ28X9ub23OsvoTEXKvNSGMG9PEuDNxgbXrNWS4yZqMJauKrw2oW+vwW13R3vd9FmSrZmPwpekLCv9/cNx7aQWKqcv/nUgUYnyvNraLtdEVjSgpMCMmtASsRVVTeCxvnv69a88DeYq0jsgJ96coc9ZzZkP4+r/kK9gUgEkfUxFzbH20Z9WE5JHzcSCbIn1Mx4oFJ38COoHCPIFjOoLbzAu1qmIBvWn/NHb0uGPJBwi8B05b/V7w+u01NGI0Jyj1Qz1P9nZp7a5r24ZugcKZNUeUto2Q4XL5rfhs/YiwDc9rlzcmk+js/zabPcJli127APQx8SumX0lqeaVBhEWEEFJRo2QxxC59Ff6Z5SC2fYBrUcWFenJB5PNL6GHQccHNRMClt2Zgvs/has6rjT8bxhOzXWEyWYSZISeid5uZkbCP0rekmiv3yQYRC3yvhxMMd2PRqvCIA7gFNUykIwkhiOvgtsVDjo2hrA3yTeamQTbGSQ1/wpJN8XgfIcG/Q0Lb9uOml/2nFCBMoTqy/ADosK1n9OwCqw4OvVn5KFrY6BYyIl7UTSwnJ3pzN7uvgr9t2padxPDkUFmoLA9GMtUEAkByeGEgAssUu8FSENTA22UFge5GsFzR+gQildSSBmrFv2vu2wtm5gdGrVBzitToPKLgvDyMhvivl+ZGNDTCG5c+kraTgwtEnga67W17dMNtuZT+yPss3B6gfC8sXeB/G5WdCeXNgmAq5+dTuW5nj9mbp0TKYzV1ljyovEq0Ici4I8Xjg+zkI2FjvBROcYSA1oysC5xKBvx294scgrhOfXqSbvEJKWDUePy7XkKXd6ZmUN1qhCYsmHeOLY5BBcuy+DApCYdHZ8hiOU0tlI7Ospfk34l+j9zdSZMhfl2L2brlCGPnuqWmKMEkIwHb6slAaLGVNKdrZhqDGo2jnyTUI+379xCS/hUnv9CSAwj0dhnnIvX72NatghaF4eEMX2ZcqYSNFhJHsXmEg2CS237MBW9iXopIbcEGM39O93L30ZTM/TGyEYYSxhEJxGHjEGfqLoCbPw2ffovbWCPNo46cdgAb8JPwgjl31VbS10ozaePC07hAj53LYQuSiDeVcA3G8oftA4z0bd8Pg2D2rz6s9byF8lPD5o6UmHLjORTfe/3l+1c9VdR2LjFRbbhcdPr6zHPJGqx5XJswc3KpdkSZQvdFMe5PWyNCR8MLqpHvHuDM/ciMtAV56BK5k6O6gQ2lpiST0li+p2x7klB+4rnS2kw6mpxZSZgnFB4bYEXzQw6fC5I89IIU2x3R6LkEW+Nb3Nk+aWVcWkhdJCa/uhpbcpGPoEWlRSJbZbyqY6U0WzUxcMhFlIgXljIuYALw6tfOawKt9x1ZcTWpFIF/4J4c//3++OCPXVa+8sWPW0IskTWX2OkLBlCWqNhuqrfeG1pR256Qek0bEyk1LOPGfq565j1xNXjOipa1gh8N6+n2R/br6DQ44qmcg+WkrQWHRhPeG9o2ylxgnkrj8b7ee4n/rQSkIr7vyEjF3UP5Ub0GSCWwfijcMSSxVV+uKeFdagryIkXROXsaKBDZG4A56fwnxIBGwwn3JWIIvwDvWBKWBUZjleHpGLTp/JtjGAM="
    },
    {
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.14499",
      "type": "web_search_result",
      "title": "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Software Tasks",
      "page_age": null,
      "encrypted_content": "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"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://medium.com/write-your-world/this-is-the-most-misunderstood-graph-in-ai-fb14ad52d743",
      "type": "web_search_result",
      "title": "This Is the Most Misunderstood Graph in AI",
      "page_age": "276 days ago",
      "encrypted_content": "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"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2505.05115",
      "type": "web_search_result",
      "title": "Is there a half-life for the success rates of AI agents?",
      "page_age": null,
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    {
      "url": "https://ai.noblerworks.com/papers/techniques/145-metr-time-horizons/summary/",
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      "title": "METR Time Horizons Paper Summary (2025)",
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      "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.07267",
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    {
      "url": "https://agitracker.io/blog/metr-time-horizons-2026/",
      "type": "web_search_result",
      "title": "The 10x-a-year clock: what METR's AI time horizons really show",
      "page_age": "52 days ago",
      "encrypted_content": "EuENCioIFRgCIiRhOGFlOWMyMy1iYWVmLTRiYzctOWJjYS04YTM3MTE5YWVhMGMSDGvPph485wUc0cv33BoMW/mS0SCP/ZtRdsefIjB1ket+1Qazi94WW65Xfq3Cx84FRreyZpD22DTSAD8LV6a1r3nIy+9/cJNElJYSGiAq5AyOmn0vjBWUX0duiBuTxBX5iLYDtyW6ad5Y6yMxiMstYLgx0F/jj7lW/KN1Bli2FclMLwfKp8OMCng2Z9B3vfon8+jlDYtQ0g8xanY0n56KfTm0+Lz9+wg9ah2u6gPO/dL0P3FgsG3hfquw5QLBL+57QiB9S3vfMCxw1KnRPdZNDk7z6umG6YpmIIvwvQsX0YJw5IjCgjXB5Nsomx/f5/B+40KKdBUiJVz0p5NmCOQwnfChH9exiYR+Gm3IiDl+siAyDMhNQbfKs43Pw0eSke+VckH3a4vyM+GVtKChfEmjcH5ZJtkXk05JXu0ERVB9GKlq58UERdOJZku7ZsJxsnjgSC9rsCHTZJPpyFv7VCBfsMi1j83pgqbRjlpOrwEwikscS4yzOgTLsskCr4h0TnD1MdCOurV9mRdv+iBj2B7q+uQMkFRqYbL0YK/BdyMXrUU4LoXP7BGh9BONW0B5K6Nd6OlUtuwmTWb1ENhNZ5BqxGb0vzJIFrdVWuxEeHPzoL3s5TC4qrIfJo2wi7fSBFdvqNLczFXtxheQDbqe60aDn7bxY/wA/x3r2Cz/oZEJ2eujUXCUM/PeO0xFZqyyM5lVncNIk0hAVVp/QHwERwduuvBoYk2m+K4c+1IZKnTTGyJdCyM4JA+KPGRoYLBPfERuUiBHG1XrSIhEXllq48YsgWJaaQkaKafzFpNG7D4SY1A9MX96gUnQu1Y6Mz32Vuv9UYlS2qL5s0AcVv56pXIjJj2+LiXgRiYAVI58vCyXRXauGLeXzXFewNGV8H0gNqEw718jBqqSTTIPFz07CvArnGimCfLu58quydjGM2KIKUzZHLKh+0U/NLkeT2iwxgJcHAonfgzYDj21ZfV2GiG+S6s0w/sKA30W3Ryk0RF6K8cl64lmizk+IOlaePD2l9HkloSK4+iv4v/IBWlvYYyjhkFdOu1Djeo5AQAvbfZZ+CcdbIndgdqwXxhuScbS43uSYrHSqf+PWgJTKxWYRQdK1ojhvW7nb/W0IGeVBOgDLEU5H8HjjNsxS6xuNl0nDGf/6P/Zd1nNdrMg1ivtKPVVPtkRNixDd7zMpcZqb5S7KmBo+bXrVqKzu1Fxxa/NS6OARPWNk7KDfDvU8HtyUfLFwlCDQsKLP+pPopTXJBx0MyXF6PdqL5BPBHWKDlsLyIpnb0oXoGp2lBp3H04SXLaxx5RdUayhm14M/L6G7yD1EkUxYbSzefBdEy4yUCuwioyHhOW4Gv9lMhmO5YkDu1OnpGdgwOFXycZg91MCU4EjiQB4pHwFQOok/09j5rP/R0FNbRwDbA63Aek9l03bA1cxhsmnQS3qSk9s7bmGeeGGsRQ5hesc4VsMNIfYvSskV30SPHqDBqNkP7r/OUGU+ZIqMkW0R3ItjvQnY+e4/8SXxhNixtcpeFDhCjagnzx4CySD7f9wot5aURtpelqU+PvteEZCoH0lTAY4Fq41iSUPS1ko5afaRl1M+xu6mNJ0EUficEGN1Z4+GPqNmHoOBP3WXX8B7bemDFwrzBXBe5yNIPm4VyYOai45VCvXo0SO0KujHto0oFYcEi488eeB9yzmuPdwJZbcaho8l/qxF+CVYJ3MsNV8xhWTP4BCewWYpbvbizKm+laeNIqni2v7pVciiG69UIRGvoSmdQZO0iWHg/v3YxGisL9XPWkYh+IPLWRcuL7PCxUPPso5BO30U/HyuqiPxhsEaBklYktOHfFZz0BTwU14+HRDQlsLby33EsHYzZmyWeBW0RvJfB1go+sUr0Kz6X53efmJM5NfUmj553nUAyhttS4RjcZxTRmSioA9FEaOLFZG2PfYkppd0mBZ4wnxPVLdzSaPEOZ5VrsjW8W4xpi4WfRY9Ya7R/IJspR4yqZ8kI5VJ/l/sTrjacs0v0k8NAj7ruxVoXuKNbt8L+kx+pSL8C+tZoH1A0r7IagWw/oFqHSR4xA0EI1Sj2cvD5rUvnPk28m6YEVlbZb/bNssLmZJdTNeMg5UQ4xUYjJV4wyNBSKXVpFTfGOmPtosZgviqRGtcSett16swfWKbzQ4U8XdK5w3pnJm1IysJxVejURScFANe4T00mq05FjKCRXiXbeSgOQ3/jgwigdIUxljvGYisKInqboctynxOST4jYJ4O+2+YXWR+8pmSGLBby8DU0DJpQCAb42Yo/Vs31ojU7ZdGAM="
    },
    {
      "url": "https://behavioralstatedecay.com/blog/task-horizon",
      "type": "web_search_result",
      "title": "Task Horizon: Why an Agent's Success Rate Drops as the Task Gets Longer · Behavioral State Decay",
      "page_age": "43 days ago",
      "encrypted_content": "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"
    }
  ],
  "tool_use_id": "srvtoolu_01R3ZokWSpTnfHS5xbzexYv7"
}
code_execution_tool_result
{
  "type": "code_execution_tool_result",
  "content": {
    "type": "encrypted_code_execution_result",
    "stderr": "",
    "content": [],
    "return_code": 0,
    "encrypted_stdout": "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"
  },
  "tool_use_id": "srvtoolu_012VgwWgKdsot9JEsFVGnoU5"
}
thinking
Calls add_argument
{
  "name": "The argument from information lost by a one-point summary",
  "stance": "for",
  "claim_id": "50758adb-ea92-4663-adb8-70d8985d4ebd",
  "description": "p50 omits reliability level, domain, protocol and budget dependence, which forecasts of deployment-relevant capability need."
}
Calls add_argument
{
  "name": "The argument from parallel trends at other reliability levels",
  "stance": "against",
  "claim_id": "50758adb-ea92-4663-adb8-70d8985d4ebd",
  "description": "80% horizons grow at about the same doubling rate as 50% horizons, so p50 suffices to forecast the rate of progress."
}