Step 2: tool results

get_claim

{
  "include": [
    "arguments",
    "subclaims",
    "dependents"
  ],
  "claim_id": "ec9c31d9-8ba5-4107-86f2-25ee089e89a1"
}

{"claim":{"id":"ec9c31d9-8ba5-4107-86f2-25ee089e89a1","kind":"claim","canonical_form":"Anthropic's models have improved on capability benchmarks about twice as fast since October 2025 as from March 2024 to October 2025.","claim_type":"empirical_derived","state":"active","decomposition_status":"complete","importance":0.45,"contestation":0.4,"domains":[],"tags":[{"slug":"anthropic","name":"Anthropic"},{"slug":"llm-capability-trends","name":"LLM capability trends"},{"slug":"ai-capability-evaluation","name":"AI Capability Evaluation"}],"steward_state":"running","stewarded_at":"2026-11-12T00:19:31.808Z","canonical_direction_note":null,"created_at":"2026-11-11T23:24:16.443Z","updated_at":"2026-11-11T23:36:47.897Z","page_url":"https://minerval.ai/claims/ec9c31d9-8ba5-4107-86f2-25ee089e89a1"},"assessment":null,"coverage":{"examined":false,"on":[],"note":"No judgment of this node is in force. That is not a finding either way."},"preliminary_seed":{"credence":0.8,"note":"METR's assessment of 5 November 2026, made with access to Anthropic's internal benchmark scores including unreleased models, estimates the internal capability index has grown at 1.9 times its earlier rate since October 2025 (95% interval 1.5 to 2.8). Robustness checks range from 1.1 to 2.9, the low end coming from a change of link function. Anthropic's own Haiku 5.5 system card reported 1.7, and an outside analysis reports reproducing about 1.6 from public data on released Claude models alone. Reasons for caution: the index covers well-specified tasks and is increasingly saturated, the data points are sparse, a single fitted breakpoint invites some regression to the mean, and \"about twice\" is the centre of a wide range. A real trend break of some size is well evidenced; the factor of two is less firm.","seeded_by_claim_id":"3d8d4a7b-39ca-46f6-9d47-bf7a3240b8ac"},"quantity":null,"threshold_of":null,"question":null,"formalization":null,"formalization_pending":null,"formalization_history":[],"verification":null,"lean_checks":[],"lean_checks_total":0,"waiting_messages":[{"trigger":"structure_and_assess","from":"the system","sender_node_id":null,"sent_at":"2026-11-11T23:24:23.793Z","paid":false,"summary":"New claim onboarded. Give it the structure and assessment its importance warrants; a minor or settled claim may need no decomposition."},{"trigger":"mandate_plan","from":"a mandate's plan","sender_node_id":null,"sent_at":"2026-11-11T23:36:47.908Z","paid":true,"summary":"This trend-break claim is unexamined and its parent's main argument needs it. Check how far the reported change in rate can be verified from public data, how sensitive it is to the choice of break dat…"}],"requests":[{"id":"7554ccfb-3cc9-491f-89d0-957bc0540968","ask":"Check from public data whether Anthropic's released models show a trend break in capability index growth after October 2025, and how much of it is catch-up toward the industry frontier: fit the Epoch Capabilities Index scores of released Claude models before and after the break, compare the pre-break slope with the frontier's, and read the METR report's appendices and Anthropic's August 2026 risk report and system cards on the same point.","why":"The assessment of whether AI use has measurably accelerated capability progress at a frontier developer rests on METR's Anthropic report, whose attribution evidence is redacted. If public data reproduce the break and the earlier slope was not unusually low, the acceleration is independently confirmed and catch-up is a weaker rival, raising confidence. If the break shrinks on public data or mostly reflects a below-frontier baseline, the claim would move toward inconclusive.","satisfied_by":"A reproducible fit on public index data with the pre and post slopes for Anthropic and for the frontier, stated with intervals, plus what the unread primary documents say about baseline growth and non-AI factors, whichever way the result comes out.","who_could":"A researcher with code execution, using Epoch AI's public benchmarking data and code.","addressed_to":null,"bears_on":[{"id":"3d8d4a7b-39ca-46f6-9d47-bf7a3240b8ac","text":"The use of AI systems in AI research and development has measurably accelerated capability progress at a frontier AI developer.","kind":"claim"},{"id":"ec9c31d9-8ba5-4107-86f2-25ee089e89a1","text":"Anthropic's models have improved on capability benchmarks about twice as fast since October 2025 as from March 2024 to October 2025.","kind":"claim"}],"bears_on_sources":[],"bears_on_text":null,"filed_by":{"kind":"admin","label":"Claim Steward"},"keeper":{"kind":"curator","label":"the Curator"},"state":"open","state_note":null,"filed_at":"2026-11-11T23:27:22.634Z","budget_usd":null,"ledger":{"action_id":"3db29350-099e-4ed9-af8c-e7ae30565e6d","variant":"scope","status":"open","cost_usd":0.33,"backing_usd":0},"work":[],"kept_by_this_node":false}],"requests_total":1,"subclaim_count":0,"instance_count":0,"source_map":null,"arguments":[],"dependents":[{"id":"3d8d4a7b-39ca-46f6-9d47-bf7a3240b8ac","text":"The use of AI systems in AI research and development has measurably accelerated capability progress at a frontier AI developer.","claim_type":"empirical_derived","node_kind":"claim","relation_type":"supports","reasoning":"The only published measurement of a capability acceleration at a frontier developer that has been tied to AI use is this trend break. If it is real, there is an acceleration to attribute; if it is an artifact, the strongest case for the parent has nothing to explain. The parent could still hold at another developer, so this supports rather than is required.","importance":0.6,"assessment_status":"supported","assessment_confidence":0.72,"assessment_credence":0.7,"bounty_micro_usd":null,"checked":null,"formal":false}],"dependents_total":1,"subclaims":[],"subclaims_assessed":0}