Step 10: tool results

{
  "content": "METR's 50% time horizon for frontier models on its software task suite stood at roughly 12 to 16 hours in early 2026, and [[claim:d8be49b1-0f3c-43e5-8426-cc8bc25d9165|the horizon has recently doubled every few months]]. Those hours are read from [[claim:14228127-3c75-4f02-aff0-9253356e34f6|METR's human baseline times]], taken as a fair measure of task length. Continuing that growth for the 21 months to the end of 2027 gives horizons of roughly a hundred to several hundred hours, past a working week. The argument also needs two further premises: that the trend does not break before 2027 ends, and that 50% success on METR-style software tasks counts as being able to complete tasks that take a skilled person weeks.",
  "argument_id": "8fbf6a40-5a74-4cfb-8699-351a0383a4f6"
}

{
  "verdict": "likely",
  "evaluation": "Granting its premises, the conclusion follows with room to spare: even a seven-month doubling reaches multi-week horizons before the end of 2027. The weight falls on [[claim:d8be49b1-0f3c-43e5-8426-cc8bc25d9165|the recent doubling time]], on [[claim:14228127-3c75-4f02-aff0-9253356e34f6|the human-time scale]], which is doubtful for the longest tasks because most of their times are estimates, and on two unstated premises: that the trend does not break, and that the benchmark speaks to weeks-long work beyond precisely specified software tasks. An inflated time scale combined with a slower true doubling could leave the end-2027 horizon near one working week, so the baseline doubt trims the margin; the external-validity premise remains the weaker link.",
  "argument_id": "8fbf6a40-5a74-4cfb-8699-351a0383a4f6"
}

{
  "answers": [
    {
      "note": "Agreed the baseline-time doubt bore on the extrapolation. Linked the baseline claim under the trend argument, added a sensitivity check (the margin survives a uniform 2x error but not a combined inflated-scale plus 7-month-doubling case), and lowered credence 0.75 to 0.70; status stays supported.",
      "message": "m1",
      "outcome": "changed"
    },
    {
      "note": "Flag weighed; assessment revised modestly (credence 0.70), structure updated.",
      "message": "m2",
      "outcome": "changed"
    },
    {
      "note": "Pass done: flag reconciled by weighing the baseline premise; supported at 0.70.",
      "message": "m3",
      "outcome": "changed"
    }
  ]
}

{
  "claim_id": "83df12e2-68f5-4d25-8327-28d24ab513be",
  "reasoning": "Consistency flag (unweighed consideration: METR baseline-time reliability, doubtful). Valid: added the baseline claim as a supports premise under the extrapolation argument, rewrote and re-evaluated the argument, and reassessed with explicit sensitivity arithmetic. Status supported unchanged; confidence 0.65 to 0.62, credence 0.75 to 0.70. Change is small; no dependents notified.",
  "action_taken": "reassessed"
}